Two big stacks vs Small Stack

Sit n Go Advanced Strategy: Two Big Stacks vs One Small Stack

The situation with two big stacks versus one small stack when three-handed is an intriguing dynamic, where strategic play and skillful decision-making can often overcome short-term variance. Lets look at how you play as one of those big stacks.

How to Play as One of the Big Stacks

You still want to play aggressively, but when you are on the button, you should limit your raising range to the top 30% of hands. This ensures that you’re making strategic decisions, as the other big stack will have better odds to call if there are additional chips in the pot from the blinds.

We’ve discussed Expected Value (EV) in previous lessons. When deciding whether to call or raise, it’s important to consider both ChipEV (expected value in tournament chips) and $EV (expected value in prize money).

Although a particular play might have positive expectation when tournament chips are considered, if the prize structure is factored in, the play might have negative prize money expectations.

Look at this example: In a $20+2 SNG, you and another big stack both have exactly 6,500 chips, and the small stack has 500. You know your big stack opponent to be a good, thinking player.

The small stack is on the button, and the ante is 75. The blinds are 300/600, so the small stack will likely be all-in on the next hand against two opponents. It’s standard poker etiquette in this spot for both big stacks to check down, maximizing the chances of eliminating the small stack and advancing to the next level.

The button (small stack) folds preflop. Your opponent in the small blind raises all-in and claims to have KQs. You believe this and have 33. KQs versus 33 is almost a perfect 50-50 if the pocket pair matches one of the suited cards in the KQ hand.

Lets do the Math!

From a strict ChipEV standpoint, the best play is to call. You are about 50-50 to win the hand, and the presence of the antes makes this a marginal call when considering the expected value of tournament chips alone.

There is an extra consideration, however, and that is the money you will (or won’t) win in this tournament. That is where $EV is considered. (Substitute another currency for $ if you prefer, but a lot of online poker is played in USD, so that is the symbol used.)

If you call and win (a 50% chance):

  • You will be virtually guaranteed to win the whole tournament, for a prize of $90. (97% chance)
  • Since there is a 97% chance you will win, you have a $EV if you win this hand of $52.38 ($36 has already been earned by each player, so we use 97%*($90-$36).
  • If you call and lose, your $EV is zero and you are out. The net $EV for calling is $26.19, since you have a 50-50 chance of winning the hand.

If you fold:

  • There is a 2/3 (33%) chance the small stack will be knocked out on the next hand (and an even better chance they will be knocked out in one of the next few hands).
  • If you fold this hand and wait for the small stack to be knocked out, you might find yourself at a chip disadvantage, (as opponent may win the chips).
  • If we do the same $EV calculation now, you will have a 40% chance of winning an additional $54 (1st place), and a 60% chance of winning an additional $36 (2nd place). Your net $EV for folding and waiting to knock out the short stack can be calculated as follows: (40% * $54) + (60% * $36) = $43.20.

This type of calculation is known as the Independent Chip Model (ICM). While tools like Poker Tracker and Poker Stove can allow help you analyze hand ranges and improve your understanding, it’s always essential to focus on developing your strategic decision-making at the table.

Final Points

In general, as one of two big stacks, raising is often a stronger play than calling. Being the aggressor puts pressure on the other big stack, forcing them to have a significantly better hand to justify a call, while also allowing you to maintain control of the betting.

Finally, when you’re one of the big stacks and the small stack goes all-in, evaluate the size of their raise and assess your pot odds. If the odds are better than 1.5-1, it’s generally worth considering a call, even with medium hands, unless you perceive the small stack as very tight or calling would put a significant portion of your stack at risk. In those cases, 2-1 odds might be required. Obviously big hands are an easy call. The other consideration is if the other big stack remains left to act behind you. If so, you want to be more selective in your calling.